Why Forecasts Are Pointless In Trading And Investing

By | April 27, 2015

Why Forecasts Are Pointless In Trading And Investing

Let’s start by defining what a forecast is: an estimate of a future event, specific in time and numerical value. A few examples include: EUR/USD will fall below parity by September 2015; Oil will reach $80 by year-end; Gold will be under $1000 by November 2015. These kinds of forecasts are made all the time by confident-sounding analysts, strategists, fund managers, and others. Although the methods used to arrive at such precise forecasts are diverse, there’s just one idea that they convey: in order to make money, you have to check your crystal ball, see what comes next and act accordingly. In reality, though, markets have always been impossible to predict. If the past appears easy, that’s just the false clarity of hindsight. But if you read market history and see what people were saying and thinking in 2014, 2009, 2008 or at any other point in the past, you understand that the future is always cloudy and the crystal ball is always cracked. The bottom line is that no one can accurately and consistently predict the market behavior so that you could derive any value from a trading/investing standpoint. Continues here

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