Debunking Fantasy World Performance Simulations

By | January 17, 2016

Update February 2017

Tradeciety has officially entered into the Guru land, selling a Forex course for $497. Just remember who Rolf, the main man behind Tradeciety, is: by his own admission in the comments to this article, in 2013 he was a struggling student who couldn’t afford a live account and therefore dabbled with demos. 4 years and no track-record later, he’s a successful trader ‘passionate about giving back’. LOL.

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Just stumbled upon an article today which left me wondering: was it written by a trader who was under the influence or by an internet marketer ? Some people falsely believe that only flashy sites with photos/videos of expensive cars and wads of cash are the mark of an internet marketer. But it’s long been an established fact that stuffing a professionally designed website with trading related materials doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a trader. Think Sasha Evdakov, who at least was honest about this.

The article, How To Grow A Small Trading Account Into A Big One, was written by Rolf, the guy behind Tradeciety.com and Edgewonk.com.

account-development-ew

Click to enlarge

We are presented with the above simulation, which considers a $250 account, a winrate of 60% and a risk/reward ratio of 1/1.2. These are called ‘relatively conservative statistics’. After 500 trades (approximately one year of trading) the simulated results range from $15k (60 times the initial amount) to $25k (100 times the initial amount). Again, these results were obtained by being conservative ! :)

Then we’re shown with a rectangle on the graph and also told that:

For the first 300 trades, the account barely does anything and it grew very, very slowly

Actually, it grew at least 4-fold during the period in which those 300 trades were taken.

300 trades with very little account growth can be hard to deal with and most traders will never get to the right side of the performance simulation

Now, any trader worth the title would instantly realize these trade statistics have nothing in common with reality.

But Rolf goes on: readers are advised that if they add money to the account, even as little as $50 per month, they will witness a significant growth. Yes, in a fantasy world. In the real one though, you’d have to live to be 400 years old to get the compounding benefits of an extra $600/year in your trading account.

My general impression is that the article is irresponsible at best, and clickbait to sell the Edgewonk software at worst.

If you’re interested to read some serious stuff about performance simulation, do have a look at the following piece by Peter Brandt:
Random-Probability-Theory-Related-to-Trading-Systems

Update 18/01/2016

Today I noticed that a comment I sent on the article discussed here wasn’t approved. Moreover, I got blocked on Twitter by both @Tradeciety and @Edgewonk

block2

blocked by Tradeciety twitter account

 

block1

blocked by Edgewonk twitter account

Conclusion: this behavior strongly suggests that Rolf is in the internet marketing business. His goal is to put out as much content as possible, in order to attract traffic and sell products and services. If what he writes actually makes sense appears not to matter too much. I have no doubt that if I were to peruse some more of his content, I would find similar nonsense – a trader will always spot someone who’s faking it.

28 thoughts on “Debunking Fantasy World Performance Simulations

  1. Pradesh

    Rolf travels across South East Asia and sells this Edgewonk software to support himself. Has nice info graphics on his websites.

    Reply
  2. patrick

    Obviously the article you criticize is addressed to the lower end segment of retail traders
    Traders who have been around the block for some time know it is a waste of time to trade $250 accounts – might as well trade a paper money account

    Reply
  3. Bill

    So your conclusion is that hiring a good web designer and making infographics doesn’t make you a trader ? I wouldn’t have guessed in a million years ! :))) Welcome to the internet

    Reply
  4. Pedro

    look at the number of followers he has on Twitter – means he must be doing something right

    Reply
    1. JLTrader Post author

      Getting followers on social media and trading are two totally different skills. Don’t forget that.

      Reply
  5. Jack

    it seems he talks about the difficulties of trading a small account from what I can tell

    Reply
  6. Robert

    What the hell does tradeciety even mean ? No about page on the website. had to look him up – Rolf Schlottman travelling through Asia, trading and building online businesses. this guy is a joke
    just another Tim Ferris wannabe

    Reply
  7. Andreas

    Blocking critical comments only shows that the author is full of shit and can’t defend what he’s written.

    Reply
  8. Louis N

    Hey Vlad

    I hadn’t heard before of Rolf, Tradeciety or Edgewonk (which by the way, looks like an interesting trading journal). As long as he is not out to scam people of thousands £££, you shouldn’t be too harsh on him. He’s just trying to make a buck – aren’t we all ? Really dedicated traders as you seem to be are rare – the web is full of trading content much worse than what you found on Edgewonk. Just accept it and try to lighten up. :)

    Reply
  9. Hans

    Hmm, really makes you wonder, doesn’t it ? I was inclined to believe it was all some kind of misunderstanding, but removing comments and blocking on Twitter ? That’s communist behaviour.

    Did you insult him or anything ?

    Reply
    1. JLTrader Post author

      Not at all, I politely pointed out that simulation is a fantasy. Didn’t even approach him on Twitter.

      Reply
  10. JT

    Edgewonk was one of the “speakers” on TopStepTraders… i had a go on his “software” only to came to the conclusion it really is a excell spreadsheet to journal trading… a flashy one… with nothing new or positive to a trader (at least a real trader… maybe good if you are beggining and can´t even make your journal spreadsheet).
    I admit i was a little mad for the time that i lost with it.
    I´m really starting ti hate all this guys that prey on the week … on the ones that have a dream of making a life and improve the family life trading seriously and honestly.

    Loving your site… Tks for all and good luck with your trading

    Reply
    1. JLTrader Post author

      Hey, great detective work you did there. I’ve received some email feedback as well that tempts me to write an article and go nuclear on this punk.

      Reply
  11. Rolf

    Hi,
    It’s me, Rolf, the guy who all this fuzz is about. I am reading this with astonishment. I never thought I would earn this much fame, but thank you very much for it.

    I am glad you discovered my earlier posts. I just hope that you would draw the right conclusions from it. I started from the bottom as most people do. I was a student trying to learn how to trade. Now, a few years later I am living my dream. I am writing this from Thailand where I partly live. I just came back from a short holiday from Bali and a one month stay on the island Phuket.

    Yes, I am a trader and yes, I have multiple income streams (our software is used by pro traders and top brokers). That’s how you diversify and build wealth. If you want to know how to achieve this type of success and live a self-determined life, send me an email or connect with me on social media and I will help you out – for free.

    This is the first and last time I will respond to this conversation. You should think about the “hating” aspect and if it’s really worth putting in the time and effort. I know trading can be tough but please don’t give up on your dreams. Focus your energy on making things happen and then enjoy the fruits of your labor – instead of trying to pull people down who are living their dreams. By the way, you can read about my trading/web entrepreneur/globetrotter lifestyle on our brand new project: http://www.digitalexpats.io/, where we help people achieve the same success and break away from the common crowds.

    I wish you all the best and success in this endeavor. I am proof that it’s possible.

    Rolf

    Reply
    1. JLTrader Post author

      Hey Rolf

      I’m not ‘hating’ and not trying to pull you down – I just commented on one of your articles and following your actions I got intrigued. A critical thinker (a prerequisite in my view for any trader) doesn’t mean hater.
      Now, you may very well be a successful trader – so far we only have your word for it. Proof would be a third party verified track-record – traveling through Asia doesn’t fit the bill, sorry for pointing out the obvious.

      But let me tell you, your behavior – blocking my comment and refusing to address the issues highlighted in the article – surely makes one wonder.

      Reply
  12. Christopher

    I agree with Vlad
    If you really wanted to clear the air then put up some sort of performance.

    If you really are living the dream than you have nothing to hide right?

    But if you are making claims that you are successful and taking people’s money without a shred of evidence than that is the same thing as fraud.

    If I claimed to be a doctor and took people’s money for treatment but had no credentials or degree than I would go to jail for fraud and misrepresentation.

    You are doing the same thing Rolf

    Reply
    1. JLTrader Post author

      He’s not taking any money at the moment, except for Edgewonk. You don’t have to be a successful trader to sell an Excel based trading journal, that’s why I decided to leave it be for now. But I don’t believe this happy-go-lucky, I’m living the dream because of trading stuff. Trading is maybe the worst kind of activity to pursue if you want to live a traveler’s life, as he’s portraying. It has a long learning curve, it requires startup capital, gives you irregular revenue and is quite time intensive.

      But if he starts to sell this dream, with nothing to back it up, that’s the kind of thing that makes me go ballistic.

      Reply
  13. Arch

    Yeah … right.
    Trade and live a party life in the Asia.
    Believe me … it´s that easy.
    Just send me an email and i teach you… for free… (that´s how great i am).
    i will teach you to be a party animal in Phuket, just working a few hours daily of my trading secrets.

    Yeah … right.

    Reply
  14. Sung

    this is what they claim they earned trading for the past 4 months:
    Rolf: $2,474 $3,009 $2,701 $3,179
    Moritz: $2,979 $2,810 $3,510 $2,980

    I left a comment asking for Myfxbook verification and it wasn’t approved.

    Reply
    1. JLTrader Post author

      Seems like they’re intent on chasing away any moderately intelligent followers they may still have.
      In this day and age, to list some numbers on a webpage as ‘proof’ that you’re a successful trader means you have zero respect for your readers.

      Reply
      1. Sung

        haha they now removed the section with claimed monthly income from the site

        Reply
        1. Sung

          now the whole site is gone haha both digitalexpats.io and tradingnomads.com automaticaly redirect to tradeciety.com

          Reply
  15. ScamBuster

    Oh man, I had such a good laugh :)))
    Now, check this out: last month I made: $30,000 trading
    $15,000 on my site no 1
    $12,000 on my site no 2
    $10,000 on my site no 3
    Proof you say ? Why, I just told you what I made, you don’t believe me ? Look at this photo, that’s me sipping a coffee in a Thai bar – isn’t this evidence enough that I’m living the life ?

    Reply
  16. Steven

    Ha! This post could be retitled The Making Of A Trading ‘Professional’
    What do we have here? Guy on a forum is sincere in that he is not trading successfully and doesn’t have a real account. Shortly thereafter the same guy but this time using his real name claims he is funding a globe trotter lifestyle with his trading profits. Not long after this he imparts his knowledge to other people, for a fee of course. Sad if someone quits his job and starts trading believing such crap!

    Reply
  17. Quiet

    Hi.
    I’m usually a quiet observer but now i feel the need to say a word or two :)

    I’m a very fresh trader but since I have no other obligation (family and so on) I read (Audible) a lot of audiobooks, listen to a hours, days of podcasts, I’ve done a large research of mentors online and what I’ve learned so far on Rolphs blog is quite a lot. I will become a pro member because I like his style of trading. He knows what he wants and I really don’t care if he shows me how much he earns. You guys have a weird habit if you want to look into someones else’s wallet! He’s promoting his stuff because it’s another way of being paid and I wish him well with that business also :)
    Yes, there are other top mentors out there but they are too expensive for my pocket or have an annual fee !!! Well some of us are a little bit slow so the annual fee is out of question 😉

    I believe I’ll learn a lot from him and other members under his mentorship.

    Let me tell you what I notice on my “Online mentorship research”. The one who is exposed on the internet he will always have a people who disagree with him. Even great traders which build fortunes have trolls attacks.

    There will always be agreement and disagreement deal with it and before you talk about others think about yourself first!

    Kind regards

    Reply

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