Author Archives: JLTrader

The Live Price Action Confidence Trick

urlI’ve touched on this subject before, but after witnessing my old pal :) Chris Capre using this trick twice within a week,  I believe a full article is now warranted.

First off, you should take a couple of minutes to learn what a shell game is, if you don’t know already. I still remember my only encounter so far with fraudsters of this type. I was traveling by coach from Germany to Romania some nine years ago and in early morning, must’ve been around 6 AM, we stopped at a motorway gas station in Hungary. I went inside and on return to the coach, there was this group of passengers surrounding two guys who were working the shell game. A woman appeared to be winning, which encouraged a few passengers to start playing. Long story short, none of them won anything – some lost 50 euros a piece with one woman losing 500 euros. I still remember asking myself how could these people be so gullible ? How could they think that some stranger is waiting at 6 AM in the middle of nowhere to hand them free cash ?

Well, after watching Chris Capre’s latest live trades, first thing that came into my mind was the shell game happening  mentioned above. Let’s discuss the (Video) +100 Pips Live Price Action Trade on NZDUSD article and you’ll understand why.

You’ll notice that unlike the videos done in early 2015 where he was more subtle, now Capre drills into the viewers that he uses a real account.

As you can see, it says real over here. That would say demo, if it was a demo account, it would say demo.

Why, indeed, that’s a REAL account, but don’t break the champagne just yet. What Capre fails to inform us (using a sleight of hand just like the shell game con men) is that it only takes $50 to open a live account with FXCM. We’re also not shown any account number or lot size, so it’s very possible that either a different account is used for each video or the same $50 account is replenished. With the money from just one course for which  these videos act as advertising, he can open 6 different REAL accounts.

Now, even if Capre actually trades a meaningful account (which I doubt) and those weren’t just lucky shots for the camera, there is another problem. One has to be disingenuous to cherry-pick some winning trades in order to show what a skillful trader one allegedly is. If you truly want to prove something, no one stops you from actually documenting a continuous series of trades.

You can learn how to find these trades. You can learn how to make these trades and that’s what I teach you in my price action course.

Almost anyone can handle trades that win right out of the gate, but how about those 5-6 trades out of 10 that end up as losers ? Or does Capre only have winners, like his collection of live price action videos imply ? If that’s not presenting forex trading through rose tinted glasses, then I don’t know what is.

A last point: one might say: yeah ok, but what about the trade analysis ? Isn’t there any value ? Well, in my opinion the right question to ask is this: why would I bother to learn from a thoroughly dishonest person ?

The Logic of Profit Pyramiding in Trading

I believe that pyramiding of profits is a poorly understood concept among the great majority of traders. It is certainly much less used in practice than its exact opposite, averaging down, also known as adding to a losing position.

Reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a book which is almost 100 years old, one notices that even then pyramiding wasn’t a trading novelty:

He sold short one hundred shares of Lake Shore. That was the time Bill Travers hammered the market, in 1875. My friend Roberts put out that Lake Shore at exactly the right time and kept selling it on the way down as he had been wont to do in the old successful days before he forsook Pat Hearne’s system and instead listened to hope’s whispers. Well, sir, in four days of successful pyramiding, Roberts’ account showed him a profit of fifteen thousand dollars.

So why isn’t it more popular today ? To answer this question, let’s see the two psychological prerequisites for successfully implementing pyramiding:

First of all, patience. A winning trade has to be open for a certain period of time to accumulate profit before you can start adding to it.

Secondly, lack of fear. In other words, you shouldn’t be itching to close an initial winning trade and book the profit, for fear that the market will reverse and take it back.

How long does it take a trader to develop the above qualities ? Years. About the same amount of time needed to develop the technical understanding of the markets required to carry out a successful pyramid trade.

So you see, because it’s actually work, it doesn’t lend itself to the usual marketing targeted at traders: sexy, get-rich-quick or no-brain-required. I guess that’s the answer why you’ll hardly ever hear about pyramiding from your local trading guru.

The point of this article is to raise awareness and get the readers to think about this concept. As with anything in trading, there’s no magic formula to tell us exactly when and how much to pyramid. Nevertheless, it has produced trading fortunes in the past and undoubtedly will continue to do so in the future.

ASIC Regulated Forex Broker SynergyFX Appears To Be A Scam

This is an update of the Rev Trader Pro review that I wrote back in January. A few days ago, via a comment left on that article, I found out that the person hiding under the fictitious name Doug Price has launched at least two more EAs since the beginning of the year: Channel Trader Pro and Vortex Trader Pro.

The modus operandi for these two robots is very similar to Rev Trader Pro: create false trading histories showing thousands percent returns, link the accounts to Myfxbook using ASIC regulated SynergyFX (which should inspire trust) and sell this personal ATM to gullible people for $800.

It should be very easy to realize that the track-records are fabricated. In the case of Vortex Trader Pro, you can notice the consecutive ticket numbers, at least up to the point when the system was published on Myfxbook. For Channel Trader Pro, the ticket numbers are in a random order, and not ascending as they should be.

The common denominator in this story is the Australian forex broker SynergyFX. It raised red flags when I first noticed the undeniably fabricated statement for Rev Trader Pro. Now two more shenanigans of the same type ? What’s going on here ?

I decided to send them an email to ask for explanations. I received an automated reply that they’ll get back to me in 24 hours. 72 hours later, no word from them. I’m not surprised though, because soon after I sent the email, I noticed on their website under ‘Promotions’ tab that they offer every client a license for ‘the top performing EA Rev Trader Pro’. How about that ! :)


Email to SynergyFX


Promotions page

So naturally, my initial thought, that this ‘Doug Price’ character somehow managed to manipulate their live feed unbeknownst to them, went out the window. Synergy FX has been on the scam since the very start. I think this is a fact that can’t be argued with. But how can a regulated broker stoop to such a practice ? I’m afraid I don’t have an answer to that.

Browsing their website, I also noticed that they entered the money management business. Although the funds management site was launched only a few months ago, they claim to service hundreds of clients and have millions in AUM. Some (impressive) performance numbers are listed, but by now who’s naive enough to trust a word they say ?


I’m going to forward a copy of this article to ASIC, the regulator of SynergyFX. In the meantime, if you consider doing business with this broker, I would strongly advise against it. Better be safe now, than sorry later.

Update 11/01/2016

No response from Synergy FX to the email I sent them more than 3 months ago. ASIC got back to me on 06/10/2015 saying that they’ll make an initial assessment and so fort, but no news since then.

GoForexPro – An Insult To Serious Forex Traders

A reader of my site asked me what I think of and the guy behind it, William (Bill) Young. He sent me a couple of  links to forums where Mr. Young is active: stevehopwoodforex and donnaforex.

I concentrated on donnaforex because I was familiar with the name and the thread was half as big as on the other forum. The happy-go-lucky, look how many pips we’re making atmosphere of that thread quickly became bothersome. But what concerned me the most was the fact that Donna, the administrator of that forum, appeared to be part of the merry crowd and endorse Bill Young (known as boldtrader there).

But what is wrong with this self-described professional trader who has supposedly produced more ‘Master Traders’ than any other firm ? :) Leaving aside the fact that no self-respecting trader talks in terms of pips, but in terms of risk-adjusted performance, have a look at this  sales page or the hyped-up content of his website. If that’s not enough to put you off, let’s quote some gems from his forum post #115:

This is a FREE program. Period. You have nothing to lose by learning how to trade the FX1 system and it variations. If you don’t like it;.. then don’t use it. It is FREE.. several of the indicators are FREE.For years, traders are using this system.  It is used by large fund managers. It is used by professional traders.

I fully understand that you want to try to make sure that the “system is real”. Trust me.. it is. If it was not, I would not be offering it and making it available for thousands of traders to learn. I am a professional trader for many years. Do not even try to question my legitimacy or the authority of the system being offered. I have a very good reputation in this industry for many years. You can come into the room, sit, do nothing, learn, make pips, and then go home and enjoy your day with pips in your pocket.

There are a couple of things that jump right at you. First, this ‘there’s nothing to lose, it’s FREE stuff’ attitude. This is a recurring theme you find about forums or sites like On the contrary, there’s potentially a lot to lose. And I mean not only time, but also money – when you either fall for whatever the guy is selling as an upgrade of the free material or start applying the ‘free teachings’ on a live account.

Secondly, when you’re asked (normally you shouldn’t even have to be asked, you should offer it from the get-go) for a proof that the system you’re teaching is profitable (by linking an account to Myfxbook in this case) your answer is ‘don’t even try to question my legitimacy’ ? LOL. You don’t fuckin’ say. Well excuse me Mr. Soros for bothering you.

The question remained, what is Donna’s involvement in all this ? Has she gone to the dark side ? So I sent her an email and asked to find out her side of the story. She replied really fast and I must say she comes across as a nice lady. She admitted that the forum thread looks pretty bad and that she’s an affiliate for Bill Young. I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, she might genuinely believe the guy’s own press. While I do think she does real damage by promoting this joker, I can’t really get upset with her because she was upfront and didn’t try to BS me.

To sum up: when you see a self-claimed professional forex trader cheerleading numbers of pips made by his system, walk away. When he doesn’t even allow you to ask for proof or question his authority, start running. Otherwise, you’ll just waste your time and potentially your money as well.

The Forex Teachers With Less Than 2 (Two) Years Trading Experience

The trading training/coaching racket comprises basically two distinct groups: on one hand, we have either lone sellers of courses or at the most a couple who joined forces, like these clowns I wrote about back in April. On the other hand, there are ‘training’ companies, which due to their reach and the very expensive ‘education’ they sell, are many times more lethal.

Why even address this subject ? I mean, if one is that dumb (as in – you don’t need any trading experience, buy this coaching package for £10.000 and with a £5.000 account you’ll recoup the cost in six months – dumb) to fall for the selling pitches of these companies,  he/she won’t pay any attention to what I write here.

Because it’s personal. If, by some miracle, I can prevent just one person from giving money to these scammers, I’ll feel even more vindicated. But the main reason is that I feel insulted, as a trader, whenever I stumble upon such snake oil salesmen.

Sometimes people will ask me whether they can spend one weekend with me so I can show them how I do this stuff. Do you know what a tremendous insult this is? It’s like my saying to a brain surgeon, “If you have a few extra days, I’d like you to teach me brain surgery.” – Mark Minervini in Stock Market Wizards

I believe that raising awareness by writing about this subject and continuing to expose these charlatans is the only way to fight them.

Perhaps one of the most well known ‘master traders’ is Greg Secker, founder of Knowledge To Action and Learn To Trade. Listening to this guy on BBC’s investigation of his ‘training business’ reminded me of Ben Affleck in Boiler Room (only with a British accent). To quote from that movie, this guy could sell bubble gum in the lock-jaw ward at Bellvue. :)

If you go to Learn To Trade website (either the UK or the Australian version), alarm bells start ringing loudly right from the homepage:

Free Workshop
Discover how to make an immediate income through Forex trading.
Learn Forex
Make money at anytime, anywhere, trading currencies.
Free eBook
Learn the formula for success direct from Master Trader Greg Secker.

Really ? You don’t fuckin’ say !

Both the BBC and The Guardian have written on this obnoxious charlatan (they didn’t call him that because they’re politically correct). What I would like to add are a couple of pictures:


Learn To Trade UK


Learn To Trade Australia

You see that they practically give the scam away: some of the so-called forex teachers/coaches they employ have less than two years trading experience ! Imagine that ! But I guess their way of thinking is to present trading as such an easy endeavor to get into, that after 1-2 years, you not only get to master it, but you’re able to teach others too.

Why You Should Always Check Your Trading Guru On

I don’t know how many people are aware of the Internet Archive available over at It’s a wonderful project which offers free access to a collection of archived web pages, among many other things. What this means is that we can use the  service to check how previous versions of websites used to look like.

While you can certainly have fun with it – going down the memory lane and realizing how much the internet has changed – for the purposes of this article I want to concentrate on its research capability.

Think about it, most (forex) trading gurus are so deep behind a smoke screen of web marketing that we don’t really know anything about them. How did they actually look like before they got a chance to put some lipstick on the pig ? :) This is where becomes invaluable.

Some highlights from my own research:

  • most of the courses I’ve checked have been seriously affected by deflation, ie you can buy now for $300 the exact course (or its ‘improved’ version) that was sold for $400 a few years ago
  • courses with limited seats each month are now sold without any such impediment
  • the same ‘big hat no cattle’ style, ie professional trader, authority, master, bla bla with unverified testimonials singing praise to the best thing since sliced bread but no verified track-record
  • spelling mistakes that went uncorrected for years – and we’re not talking about a non-native English speaker here

mis your-youre

  • ‘just this month’ special discount of 20%-40% that in actuality is repeated every month :)
  • clear attempts at manipulating the search engines by repeatedly using key words like ‘price action’. I just wish I could get in touch with Larry Page from Google, show him the situation and get this impostor’s site (yeah, you guessed, I’m talking about Nial Fuller) removed from any search results:


Hopefully I’ve managed to get you excited about So next time you’re interested in buying a trading service/product, instead of reading the testimonials on the website (a futile activity anyway), check out the emperor’s previous clothes. You might be in for a big surprise. :)

Paul Tudor Jones and Elliott Wave Theory

A few months ago I wrote an article addressing the magical powers attributed by some to Fibonacci analysis. What I had planned to write next about was Elliot Wave Theory, which I consider to be an equally ridiculous and degrading part of technical analysis. But, a couple of things held me back. Firstly, there’s much more haziness here compared to Fibonacci. Secondly, and most important,  Paul Tudor Jones is quoted in Market Wizards (1988) as being a supporter:

Are there any market advisers that you pay attention to ? Bob Prechter is the champion. Prechter is the best because he is the ultimate market opportunist.
What do you mean by opportunist ?
The reason he has been so successful is that the Elliott Wave theory allows one to create incredibly favorable risk/reward opportunities. That is the same reason I attribute a lot of my own success to the Elliott Wave approach.

Whenever I wanted to criticize the Elliot Wave aficionados, I got stopped in my tracks by the quote above. Well, this week I’ve been reading More Money Than God, a book which provides a history of hedge-funds. Paul Tudor Jones is of course mentioned, and new light is shone on a couple of things: the attribution of his trading success to Elliot Wave; the fact that together with his chief economist and statistician, Peter Borish, predicted the 1987 crash by noting an eerie parallelism when they superimposed the charts of the 1980s on the 1920s.

Firstly, as it can be seen in Trader: The Documentary (1987), Borish predicted that the crash would arrive in the spring of 1988. This forecast was no better than the many others made at a time when a lot of Wall Street players were expecting a market break – unsurprisingly  after a five year bull run. Secondly, in an interview in Barron’s in the first half of 1987, Peter Borish admitted to fudging the results of the 1980s-1920s comparison, juggling  with the starting points for the two lines until he got the fit he wanted.

How about the connection between Paul Tudor Jones, Elliott Wave theory and Robert (Bob) Prechter ? It must be said that Prechter was an investment guru in the 1980s, mainly because he had correctly predicted the start of the bull market in 1982 (by using Elliot Wave). After the crash, expecting the stocks to plunge at least 90%, he became a perma-bear and remains one to the present day. It’s clear that the stellar performance Paul Tudor Jones had in 1987 (200%) can’t be attributed to Prechter. Not only he didn’t pinpoint the date of the crash, but Jones said in an interview to Barron’s that he decided to fade Prechter (in other words, fade Elliot Wave), due to Prechter’s becoming such a large market force. A quote from More Money Than God offers what I believe to be the real reason for PTJ’s success:

The truth was that Jones’s trading profits came from agile short-term moves, not from understanding multidecade supercycles whose existence was dubious. Like the traders at Commodities Corporation, Jones was adept at riding market waves; he would get up on his surfboard when a swell seemed to be coming, ready to jump off quickly if the market turned against him. “When you take an initial position, you have no idea if you are right,” he once confessed, undermining the notion that any long-range analysis could explain his success. Rather, as he explained in his more candid moments, his method was “to write a script for the market,” setting out how it might behave; and then to test the hypothesis repeatedly with low-risk bets, hoping to catch the moment when his script became reality.

This sounds very similar to Jesse Livermore’s method of placing ‘exploratory bets’ until the market confirmed its direction and allowed him to add to the original position.

To conclude: although Paul Tudor Jones might have genuinely believed that his success was due to Elliot Wave, as he’s quoted in Market Wizards,  all the evidence points to the contrary. Again, from More Money Than God:

In one example of Jones’s loose grip on the causes of his own success, analysis by Commodities Corporation, which had seeded Jones, determined that he tended to lose money on cotton, the market he believed he knew best. When the Commodities Corporation analysis was presented to Jones, he had difficulty accepting it.

The Battle of Price Action Trading Giants – Chris Capre vs Nial Fuller

I’ve mentioned the universe of price action sellers before on this website. Today I’m going to revisit the subject because something very funny just happened. Someone sent me this article by Chris Capre, one of the high priests of price action sellers, 5 Reasons Why Hedge Funds Aren’t Trading Confirmation Price Action Signals where he frontally attacks the Pope himself, Nial Fuller. Now, that’s what I call real entertainment. :)

First let’s start with some details on who the combatants are:

  1. Nial Fuller is one of the more obnoxious internet marketers out there masquerading as professional traders. I haven’t  written about Nial before because he provokes me a gag reflex and I’m afraid I’m just going to puke all over my laptop. :) But here’s a good review of him and the kind of shenanigans he’s up to: Learn To Trade The Market Review
  2. Chris Capre has been selling price action related stuff for more than five years. I think he came on the scene at just about the same time as Fuller. While not as offensive, Capre has his fair share of skeletons in the closet. For starters, he doesn’t have any track-record. Then he mentions he’s a fund manager at KronoxFX, yet no verifiable performance records of that exist either. Then there’s this strange thing of him boasting to be a philanthropist (donating over 10% of net revenues each year). Why would you even mention that ? And if you do mention it, why not bring some actual proof ? Hey, it takes me 3 minutes to make a page and list ten charities to which I can pretend that I donate. He seems to be into religion, Buddhism. Well, if I remember correctly, in the Bible the showing off is frowned upon. There are more skeletons, but I think these suffice for now.

Don’t be the guy on the right, Chris Capre. God doesn’t like that type.

Ok, with the above being said, let’s analyze the article. It’s a wonderful mix of truth, self promotion, bashing a competitor and unverified, unprofessional claims. The first part, where he tears into Nial Fuller and his fakey pin bars bullshit, is true and the most funny part of the article. Conjecturing about what the hedge-funds and prop trading firms might or might not be doing is unwarranted in my opinion, save for the obvious that they’re not into Fuller’s BS.

Under Reason #3 paragraph we find this gem:

I’ve made over 20% in the last few months using your methods. I’m glad you poked giant holes in his price action strategies. 

Otherwise I’d still be waiting for pin bars and inside bars, missing hundreds of pips.

How’s that for unverified testimonial and kicking a competitor, all in one ? :) . Presenting a return without any mention of the risk taken to achieve it, is worse than worthless. Actually, it’s just bait for prospective customers.

I hope Nial Fuller won’t back into a corner and let this blow over, but charge back at Capre. I’m out to get some popcorn. :)

Later Edit:

I found another gem in the comments section of the above article:

FYI – I’m happy to put my top students numbers against anyone else from the pin bar + inside bar + engulfing bar camp and see who wins that one. I’m confident my top student (who also works a 9-5 job) will trump the top student from any of those other camps.

So we now have not only the battle of the giants, but the battle of their students as well. :) Here’s a tip for you Mr. Capre: if you’re so tough and mighty, why don’t you post your own numbers ? But please don’t insult our intelligence by posting excel tables or photos. Third-party verified performance only.

Related article: The Live Price Action Confidence Trick

A New Development at – Launching the Mentoring Program

It’s now a little over a year since I’ve started this website, which I believe has been beneficial to the general public in two ways:

1. by offering food for thought with my trading related articles inspired not from some sales script or ‘how to gain the most web traffic in six easy steps’ manual but from my personal nine years experience in the trading trenches and from the many books that I’ve read over time.

2. by exposing outright scammers and shady characters of which there are plenty in the trading world and debunking trading myths or various bad advice that I’ve come across when browsing the internet.

To be totally honest, this enterprise has helped me a lot too: through reading or rereading different materials as part of the preparation for writing my articles, I keep the various aspects of trading fresh and better organized in my mind.

There are two things that have been happening that finally made me decide to start the mentoring service. Firstly, the emails that I’ve been receiving asking if I offer some kind of education or trading support on a more personal level. Secondly, I did a google search on the subject, with particular attention to Forex mentoring and I noticed there’s great demand for someone who is genuine. People are just tired of hucksters posing as professional traders and using the same old tricks to con them out of their hard earned money. I also noticed there are many people smart enough to realize that ‘learning’ from some anonymous nick on a forum is not exactly the best way to approach something as important as trading.

So what about the supply ? Concerning forex trading, the only guy that I could find that seems trustworthy is Jarratt Davis. His approach to trading is totally different to mine though, and seems to be closed for new members for some time now. So it’s clear to me that there is a big gap between the demand for trading mentoring and the supply of serious and reliable mentors.

I hope that I’ll be able to meet some of that demand and help reduce the existing gap.

The Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing Giving Trading Advice


Let me give you trading advice

Via Twitter last night I came across TradingStory, a website which ‘aims to bring NEWER traders the most practical & inspiring trading podcasts (interviews & tips) anywhere.’ Browsing around a little bit, just to see what I missed some 8-9 years ago when I was a new trader, I got to this page: How to Shop for a Trading Service, where the BS really hit the fan. Sending new traders to scammers like Joe Ross or Markus Heitkoetter or to shady outfits like Maverick Trading is akin to letting a pack of hungry wolves guard a herd of sheep.

Regarding Joe Ross, he made a fool of himself on this forum thread and there’s also this review of him, basically questioning his supposed +50 years track-record (which no one ever saw) and trading expertise.

As to Markus Heitkoetter and his Rockwell Trading, a simple google search will reveal the huckster that he really is and the kind of shenanigans he’s up to.

Maverick Trading is just an ‘educational’ firm masquerading as a prop firm. I’ve written on this type of charlatans before so I won’t get into the particulars of this firm. One observation that I’d like to make though is this: look at the results tab and notice how they try to take advantage of the confidence and respect that the Reuters logo inspires. You’d think that those claims were verified and/or endorsed by Reuters, when in actuality, that’s just a PR Newswire release coming straight out of the wolf’s mouth.



I’m not giving this Brandon Clay guy, the author of the TradingStory website, any benefit of the doubt when in his own words, he’s been following the financial markets for almost two decades.

Listen, if you didn’t know you were being scammed you’re too fuckin’ dumb to keep this job. If you did know, you were in on it. Either way, you’re out. Get out. – Robert De Niro in Casino