Beware the Hindsight Advice of Price Movement “Experts”

By | January 27, 2015

There are a lot of “experts” out there who will purport to know the reasons for every 20pip move in a currency pair or stock index. I just want you to think about it for a minute.

You will see how impossible it would be for the analyst, strategist or whoever writes these pieces to ascertain just why those who bought or sold during the day did so.

In order to make statements like “a better than expected Ifo report drove the euro higher” with any degree of accuracy, it would be necessary to get in touch with every buyer and seller for the day, find out their reasons for the trade and then strike a balance.

These buyers and sellers are all across the globe, from the traders with a $500 account to the big banks and hedge funds dealing in billions. It is therefore absurd to place any reliance on statements that this or that was the reason for the advance or the decline.

This is not only to emphasize the necessity of taking these kinds of reports with a big grain of salt, it is also to prove that no one actually knows what produces these small moves. None of the known events (the ones you can find, for instance, in a forex calendar) in and of themselves move a currency pair.

If you spend enough time observing the market, you will notice that the price action cannot consistently be reconciled with the reasons given by the “experts.”

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